Italy go into their Pool D match against Wales at Canberra Stadium Saturday October 25 slightly undercooked with their star winger Mirco Bergamasco and key lineout jumper Marco Bortolami both ruled out due to injury.
Italy is third in Pool D, one point behind Wales with New Zealand on top. With the All Blacks favoured for one Quarter Final place, the second spot is almost certain to go to whoever triumphs in the Wales v Italy match.
Form guide
Wales go in favourites placed at No.8 on the official IRB rankings whilst Italy has moved up from 13th to 12th place after their 36-12 win over Tonga.
Wales has won eight of their nine encounters, although Italy took the honours in their most recent clash in February, winning 30-22.
Italy will however be recovering from an extremely physical five point win over Canada in 21 October, whether or not they have had time to recover from the match will bear influence on the night’s contest.
Italy lost their first match to Tournament heavy weights New Zealand 70-7 but came back strongly in their next match 36 – 12 against Tonga. Wales are yet to lose a match beating both Canada 41-10 and Tonga 27-20 their favouritism supported by their second place in the pool.
Previous meetings
As has been stated, Italy won their last match at home 33 points to 22, but the match before with Wales at Cardiff was a different story with the Welsh running out victors 42-20 at Millenium Stadium in 2002.
Wales haves also won the only ever RWC encounter defeating Tonga in 1999 by 29 points to 19.
In and out
Italy have been hit by a two major injury blows ahead the match, with wing Mirco Bergamasco and lock Marco Bortolami ruled out of the match.
Both players sustained injuries in the bruising 19-14 victory over Canada, Bergamasco suffering a broken cheekbone and Bortolami going off with a dislocated clavicle.
Bortolami - in particular - is a major loss for the Azzurri given that he is their major source of possession in the line out.
Key Players
While these absences will no doubt damage their chances of progressing in the tournament, Italy are likely to call on the vast experience of skipper Alessandro Troncon for the vital clash.
After an authoritative first-half performance against Canada, the scrum-half went off injured at the break, but is expected to be fit for their next match.
What it means
A win with bonus point could put Italy equal with Wales at Second place on the ladder whilst Wales who presently stand at 9 points second behind New Zealand could assure their ascendancy beyond the qualifying rounds with a victory.
The game against Wales is hugely significant to both nations and is likely to decide who will grab that second qualifying spot behind pool pacesetters New Zealand.
"We have a little bit of difficulty in naming our team," said Italy coach John Kirwan, whose team have had to endure a punishing RWC schedule which saw them play New Zealand, Tonga and Canada within a 10-day period.
What they said
Italian coach John Kirwan is playing down his team’s chances:
"I don't see us as favourites. We are underdogs by a very long way for two reasons, firstly, with our recovery and not having a chance to train for the Wales game and also our injury situation hasn't helped. However if we get out there on Saturday and play the match of our lives there shouldn't be much in it.
On the Wales team:
"They are well drilled and dangerous with the ball in hand, I think Steve Hansen (Wales coach) and his team should be feeling very confident."
Welsh centre Iestyn Harris was at the Italy Canada game on 21 October and had this to say on what it means to Wales.
"It's probably the type of game we wanted it to be. Very physical. Canada stood up well and probably performed the best they have here in the World Cup. They really took it to Italy and as a result it was a really rough and tough game and that's what we wanted."
"We all watched last night's game and have taken things out of it. We are aware of what they (Italy) are going to do on Saturday. That's why we had a lengthy session today and we have a plan of attack and we think its the right way but I can't say too much and give something away."
On Italy in general:
"They are a very close-knit side. They've got a lot of players who have played together for quite a while. They seem to know each other's play and they play it very tough in the forwards. Our forwards have to stand up and get some sort of roll on against them."
On Italy's New Zealand-born flyhalf Rima Wakarua, who has impressed in the two RWC matches against Tonga (his interational debut) and Canada:
"He's played very well. He's a great goal kicker so we can't give away silly penalties because he is going to slot them. He's got a good left foot and good hands so we are going to have to shout at the back three and he links well with his forwards and backs. He's a good player."
On his own RWC performances following criticism during the lead up to the Tournament that his form didn't warrent the large amount of money he received for switching from rugby league:
"I've worked on everything generally. I've always felt I've had the skills to make it. It's just touching on the ones that needed touching up."
On Welsh expectations back home and what he has been hearing since the RWC start:
"My wife doesn't know a thing about rugby and she is the only one I've spoken to."
Match details
Italy v Wales 18.30
Canberra Stadium, Canberra
Referee: Andrew Cole
Touch Judges: Kelvin Deaker, Peter Marshall
TV Match Official: Joel Dume