Italy go into their crucial Pool D match against Wales at Canberra Stadium Saturday October 25 with two of their best players out.
Star wing Mirco Bergamasco and key lineout man Marco Bortolami are both ruled out with injury.
Meanwhile Wales have replaced two thirds of the team that struggled to a win against Tonga in its last outing.
Form guide
Wales go in favourites placed eighth on the official IRB rankings whilst Italy has moved up from 13th to 12th place after their 36-12 win over Tonga.
Despite the four place difference, Italy will hold the self-belief that comes with having their biggest winning margin (33-22) ever over the Red Dragons in the last match the two teams played in 2002/2003 Six Nations action.
Italy will, however, be recovering from an extremely physical five point win over Canada on 21 October, whether or not they have had time to recover from the match will have a strong influence on the night’s contest.
Italy lost their first match to Tournament heavy weights New Zealand 70-7 but came back strongly in their next match 36–12 against Tonga. Wales are yet to lose a match, beating both Canada 41-10 and Tonga 27-20.
Previous meetings
Italy won their last match at home 33 points to 22, but the match before at Cardiff was a different story with the Welsh running out victors 42-20 at Millennium Stadium in 2002. Wales have also won the only ever RWC encounter, defeating Italy in 1999 by 29 points to 19.
In and out
Italy have been hit by a double injury blow ahead of the crunch match with wing Mirco Bergamasco and lock Marco Bortolami ruled out.
Both players sustained injuries in the bruising 19-14 victory over Canada, Bergamasco suffering a broken cheekbone and Bortolami going off with a dislocated clavicle.
Carlo Checchinato steps up to take Bortolami’s place at lock while Nicola Mazzucato replaces Bergamasco on the right wing in two of the four changes.
Hooker Carlo Festuccia is in for Pablo Ongaro and big hitting Andrea Masi replaces Manuel Dallan at inside centre in the other changes.
Only five of Wales’ starting line up against Tonga survive to take their places against the Azzurri.
There is a whole new front row with Duncan Jones, Robin McBryde and Adam Jones replacing Iestyn Thomas, Mefin Davies and Gareth Jenkins.
Captain Colin Charvis moves from openside flanker to number 8 in place of Alix Popham.
Lock Robert Sodilo moves to the bench to make way for Brent Cockbain, brother of Wallaby Matt.
In the backs there is a new halfback combination with Dwayne Peel and Ceri Sweeney in for Gareth Cooper and Stephen Jones.
The impressive Iestyn Harris remains at inside centre, whilst outside him New Zealand born Sonny Parker gets another start. Mark Jones remains on the right wing and Gareth Thomas starts on the left. Kevin Morgan replaces Rhys Williams at full back.
Key Players
While injury absences could affect their chances of progressing in the tournament, Italy can still call on the tremendous experience of skipper Alessandro Troncon for the must win clash.
After an authoritative first-half performance against Canada, the scrum-half went off injured at the break, but is back for the big game.
Also returning is Andrea Masi, a player who has often turned defence into attack with some shuddering tackles throughout the Tournament.
Wales will be looking for a commanding match from captain Charvis. The big number 8 can be a devastating ball runner and will need all the go forward he can muster against a talented Italian loose forwards of the calibre of openside flanker Aaron Persico and mobile 20 year old number 8 Sergio Parisse.
League convert Iestyn Harris will look to continue his line-breaking form and create scoring opportunities for Jones and Thomas on the wing.
What it means
A win with a bonus point could put Italy equal with Wales in second place on the ladder whilst Wales, who presently stand second behind New Zealand on nine points, could assure progression beyond the qualifying rounds with a victory.
The game against Wales is hugely significant to both nations and is likely to decide who will grab that second qualifying spot behind pool pacesetters New Zealand.
What they said
Italian coach John Kirwan is playing down his team’s chances:
On the Wales team:
"They are well drilled and dangerous with the ball in hand, I think Steve Hansen (Wales coach) and his team should be feeling very confident."
On the draw:
"We are under no pressure, we are fatigued, tired but we are courageous. We're going to go and have a good time. It doesn't mean we're not going to take it seriously, it's just going to be a very serious party.”
Welsh centre Iestyn Harris was at the Italy Canada game on 21 October and had this to say on what it means to Wales:
"It's probably the type of game we wanted it to be. Very physical. Canada stood up well and probably performed the best they have here in the World Cup. They really took it to Italy and as a result it was a really rough and tough game and that's what we wanted."
"We all watched last night's (Italy v Canada) game and have taken things out of it. We are aware of what they (Italy) are going to do on Saturday. That's why we had a lengthy session today and we have a plan of attack and we think it's the right way, but I can't say too much and give something away."
On Welsh expectations back home and what he has been hearing since the RWC start:
"My wife doesn't know a thing about rugby and she is the only one I've spoken to."
Match details
Italy play Wales at Canberra Stadium on October 25. Andrew Cole will referee the match. Kelvin Deaker and Peter Marshall are the touch judges while Joel Dume is the TV Match Official.
The match kicks off at 18:30.
Click on rugbyworldcup.com for up-to-the-minute coverage of the game including ball by ball play, match analysis, video and audio footage.