A brave Zinzan Brooke has dismissed history, talk of choking or weather conditions to claim the All Blacks will move to their third Rugby World Cup final because the Australians have lost focus ahead of the first semi final in Sydney tonight.
No defending champion has ever won a RWC Semi Final. Sentiment also favours a New Zealand semi final win in Sydney tonight.
But, as he displayed in 58 tests in an era of ruthless All Black success, it is not sentiment that sustains Brooke.
If New Zealand score first
If New Zealand score first the All Blacks will win by 18 to 20 points, Brooke says before easing off a little to suggest New Zealand by 12 points.
“It is a rugby decision,” he said. “The All Blacks are not under any pressure. All the pressure is on Australia.
"They are at home, their own press is against them. The All Blacks are more composed.”
Australia have retained the XV that beat Scotland 33-16 in the quarter final but it will need to produce a total 80 minute performance rather than the 40 minute effort in the second half which was enough to eliminate Scotland.
New Zealand, too, have chosen the same side that convincingly beat South Africa 29-9 in last Saturday's quarter final, a performance that demonstrated the increasing power of the All Blacks pack as an added asset to the flair of the backline.
A balanced report card
Any balanced RWC report card would mark the New Zealand form as assertive whereas Australia, maybe because of the burdens associated with hosting the Tournament as defending champions, has been unconvincing to date, despite a record score against Namibia.
The Wallabies did not beat New Zealand in either of their encounters this year, so the pressure to upset the odds is great.
The most influential area will be the tackle where outstanding loose forwards, David Lyons, Phil Waugh and George Smith of Australia go up against the three New Zealanders, Jerry Collins, Richie McCaw and captain Rueben Thorne.
The trio that makes the most effective and consistent tackles and snaffles the most loose ball at the breakdown to provide counter attack opportunities will produce the winning edge.
Brooke, a former All Black captain and scorer of 17 test tries and three drop goals, is working as a television commentator during RWC.
He suggested the Australians are concentrating on the All Blacks to the detriment of their own campaign.
“The Wallabies are more worried about Carlos Spencer and Mils Muliaina,” Brook said.
“They are concentrating on what we are going to do and if they continue to do that it means they are not worried enough about their own game.”
Lessons learnt
Australia's defence has been very strong, but the ball handling, some strange line selections in attack and some erratic kicking have made the backline running ploys far from effective.
New Zealand have enjoyed considerable success with its fast backline, but got a defensive shock from Wales in a Pool match when the All Black line was breached for four tries in its 53-37 win.
The lesson Wales provided appeared to have been learned as the All Blacks tightened the tackling and reduced the Springboks to only three penalty goals in the quarter final.
The Wallaby defence will certainly present the All Blacks with its strongest challenge so far. The game is certain to be a vigorous contest for the entire 80 minutes, especially if the Wallaby backline holds its passes and maintains an attacking ball-in-hand approach.
Brook said the Wallabies have been a disappointment to date, even falling down in the areas they have built contemporary reputation on such as the lineout.
“They are supposed to be the masters of the line out,” Brooke said. “The New Zealand lineout has been much better at this Tournament. So the lineout that has been good is now under pressure.”
New Zealand face the major challenge of maintaining their style against a side that will certainly be much more assertive and skilled, especially defensively, than any other team it has played in RWC 2003.