After 40 Pool matches and a revealing if not predictable quarter final series, the rock of the all conquering 1984 Grand Slam Wallaby scrum, tight head prop, Topo Rodriguez hasn’t changed his mind.
New Zealand will beat England to win Rugby World Cup 2003. Leaving France to beat Australia in the play off for third and fourth.
But an upset, particularly in the Sunday semi final between France and England is possible, Rodriguez said.
"England and France is 50/50 after the weekend," Rodriguez said. "I haven't really changed my mind, I am still leaning towards England."
The Rodriguez doctrine has it that the team with 15 form players wins games at the knockout stage. Just two or three players off the pace and you are doomed.
Pretty much the story of the quarter final weekend
Australia had more good players than Scotland in Brisbane, Carlos Spencer pushed the All Blacks past a desperate Springboks in Melbourne, England too ultimately had more talent available than the excitable Welsh and the French XV beat an Ireland XV in need of more Woods’ and O’Driscolls if they are ever to advance beyond the quarter final stage.
“In the game at this level if one or two guys are not playing well on the day and the other team have 15 guys playing great there could be upsets,” Toppo says, explaining his method for selecting winners in the knockout stages of the Tournament.
Rodriguez said the only way Australia had a chance to upset New Zealand in the semi final was to hold possession.
“Teams will try to pressure New Zealand early to put them off their game plan,” he said. “New Zealand is very good on paper but if a team manages to put pressure on the All Blacks and hold the ball they are a chance of winning.”
England are vulnerable
Rodriguez believes Tournament favourite England are vulnerable and that France has the best forward pack of the four teams left. Interestingly he doesn’t rate the Australian eight.
“I am impressed with the French pack, they have always been strong in the forwards but now they are disciplined in defence,” he said. “The French have always had flair in attack.
“England look good but they are vulnerable as well. Before the Tournament I thought New Zealand would win it and England would finish second and France and Australia third and fourth.
“The Wallaby forwards simply are not performing at the level they should be. They have good players but they are not playing as a unit.”
Rodriguez worked for former Queensland backs coach David Clark at RWC 2003, drilling the Canadian forwards on the intricacies and importance of scrummaging.
He held a similar position for the Northern Suburbs club in Sydney, taking charge of the Third Graders on match day and working with the tight forwards on training nights.
Big scores OK
Toppo likens the Pool round robin matches of RWC 2003 to the early rounds of Wimbeldon where aspiring lower rank players attempt to improve their standing by beating a higher ranked opponent, only to be blown off the court 6-0 6-0 6-0.
“The Tournament has been very good,” Toppo said. “ A great success with a lot of interest from supporters. Of course there have been a lot of games where top teams were playing weaker teams and that led to big scores. But this is nothing to worry about.
“Look at Wimbledon in the first round people lose in straight sets. Maybe it looks worse because the numbers are larger in rugby scores.”
Samoa are the team that most impressed the former Puma strongman.
Unfortunately they fall in to a category of teams, like Wales, Ireland and Scotland who have yet to develop a system or plan to come back when they fall behind on the scoreboard.
“Samoa were able to upset England because they were organised,” he said. “When the game is close these teams are in your face but when you manage to score they fall away quickly.”